Putin: Let's Negotiate If I Win

Vladimir Putin was educated and trained in a monolithic, "one size fits all" political dictatorship run by authoritarian central planning principles. He simply can't identify with Western values of international law, fair democratic elections, the sanctity of National borders and meaningful negotiations to solve political problems. To Mr. Putin, every negotiation has a winner and a loser and every agreement is simply a temporary set-back until he figures out how to achieve his ultimate goal. 

But he does have an Achilles heel--the Russian economy. The growth rate has plummeted from an average annual rate of 7% over the last decade to 1.3% in 2013. Wealthy Russians are transferring money out of the country (witness the apartment sales in London's Mayfair and Belgravia) and now Western companies are either pulling back or considering pulling out. Since 2011, the ruble has fallen 22% against the U.S. dollar, inspite of the anemic American economic recovery. Russian exports and manufacturing have dropped. Oil--the financial pillar of the economy--has stayed relatively stable at around $110 a barrel over the last 3 years. Any downturn in World oil prices will have a crippling impact on the federal budget and on the Russian economy in general. In the domestic oil and gas industry, state-controlled Rosneft is buying small private small companies, throwing out free market business practices and replacing them with inefficient, corrupt central planning principles that brought down the Soviet Union (they never learn).

Under these circumstances, the West should look at the long game. Europe must become energy independent--remove the blinkers and allow fracking. America should restore its military budget by reducing welfare entitlement programs and by encouraging more job creation in the private sector. The European Union should grant associate status to Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. The U.S. should stop military withdrawals from Europe. Nato countries bordering Russia should be reinforced militarily, particularly with fighter jets. Steps like these show commitment and resolve--the only language that Vladimir Putin understands.