Sunday, 31 August 2014

Memo To Ukraine: Follow Poland's Lead



Up to the collapse of Soviet communism in 1989, Ukraine and Poland lived behind the same Iron Curtain, under the same tyrannical boot.  With independence, however, they took separate paths.  Poland was lucky.  Its Finance Minister, Leszek Balcerowicz, (later governor of Poland's Central Bank)  had to transform the country from a centralized, collectivist mess into a free market, entrepreneurial economy.  He knew reform could take one of 2 routes - sudden change he called "shock treatment"  or slow, incremental change.  He said:  "Bold action had little chance of success but incrementalism had no chance of success, so, a very risky option is always better than a hopeless option".  Within a year, Mr. Balcerowicz permitted inefficient state firms to go bankrupt, filling the void with visionary entrepreneurs;  he reduced government spending;  he opened up international trade and he pegged the zloty (currency)  to the American dollar, thereby lowering inflation.  At first, it was difficult - the concept of free markets was foreign to the Poles;  but eventually it worked.  Today, Poland has the fastest growing economy in Europe and it's a member of both NATO and the EU.

Ukraine, unfortunately, took a different path.  Corruption is an integral part of both government and the private sector;  government control is pervasive;  inflation is hyper;  and the black market (underground economy)  drains taxes away from social programs and infrastructure.  However, if newly elected President Petro Poroshenko can resolve the current crisis with Vladimir Putin, he then has a chance to duplicate Poland's economic miracle.  After all, he is a very successful business mogul;  in fact, one of the richest people in Ukraine.  They don't call him the "Chocolate King"  for nothing.


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