Ukraine Calls Putin's Bluff

Just 4 months ago, it seemed that eastern Ukraine would secede and form a pro-Russian separatist state called "Danetsk People's Republic".  After taking Crimea with a combination covert operations and a mock referendum on separation, Russian president Vladimir Putin looked ready to repeat the strategy in eastern Ukraine.  But today, all bets are off.  The Ukrainian army and foreign mercenaries are pounding rebel positions into submission.  The Russian force of 45,000 massed on the border seems content to simply watch the action.  All the rebels' key political and military leaders have fled the country and scurried back to Mother Russia.  Alexander Borodai, self-proclaimed "Prime Minister"  of the separatist republic - Gone.  Igor Girkin (nicknamed "Strelkov", meaning "shooter"),  the former Russian secret service operator who led the successful takeover of Crimea, then moved North-East to command the rebels - Gone.  Foreign journalists on the scene now report a cloud of anarchy descending on the region.  One Russian commander reportedly said:  "Our entire political and military command has left;  as soldiers, we will stand our ground, but it is becoming hard".  With the removal of law and order, thuggish bands of mercenaries roam the countryside, abusing civilians and looting.  The dream of Novo Rossiya or "new Russia"  is fast fading into the twilight of defeat.

Of course, all of this could turn around if President Putin orders in the Russian army, but that possibility seems more and more unlikely.  Why?  First, wealthy Ukrainian oligarchs, supported by the government, raised volunteer battalions to fight in the east.  Second, Ukraine elected Petro Poroshenko, himself an oligarch and staunch supporter of the West, as President and Commander of the armed forces.  Poroshenko refused to be intimidated by Putin's sabre rattling and ordered the "charge".  Third, separatist leaders could not rally enough local people to join the cause and fight.  This left the rebels with no reserves to call up.  Fourth, Russia faced enormous international condemnation when the Malaysian airliner was shot from the skies.  And fifth, international sanctions are starting to bite the economy and to hit rich Russian oligarchs in their "bottom line".  Even Russian polls show a drop in public support for military intervention.

So now, all eyes are on Vladimir Putin.  Will he launch an attack or will he call off the dogs of war?  My money's on withdrawal.