The Scottish Head Says No But The Heart Says Yes

Ah Lassies and Laddies   -You've got a lot of weight on your shoulders.  For the first time since the Act of Union created the United Kingdom in 1707, Scotland will vote to stay or go independent.  Until a month ago, the momentum was "No" - stay.  But today 3 key voting groups have switched to the "Yes" side - separate.  In only 4 weeks, working-class voters are up from 41% "yes"  to 56%;  young voters under 40 are up from 39% "yes"  to 60%;  women are up from 33%  'yes"  to 47%. Only conservative voters have resisted the lure of independence with a solid 93% planning to vote "No".

These patterns demonstrate the effectiveness of Alex Salmond, leader of the Yes Scotland movement.  First, he neutralized the fear factor - many Scots feared separation would devastate the economy - but Salmond's message of more North Sea oil revenue and corporate tax cuts to attract new companies hit home.  Second, he played the "Sassenach"   (English) card with great skill.  He appealed to Scottish national pride - how long will you let the Sassenach politicians in London control your destiny?

The business community is split on the vote.  Smaller firms located in Scotland seem caught up in the wave of nationalism and tend to vote "yes".  But larger companies with business ties in England, Wales and overseas trend to the "no"  side.  Most economists agree that independence would lead to recession, instability and more spending cuts in government programs.  Revenue from oil production in the North Sea, they argue, is already on the decline as extraction costs go up and oil reserves run dry.  By the 2020's, North Sea oil will bring in less than 2 billion pounds a year.  Scotland's financial services industry, including the Royal Bank of Scotland, would head south resulting in the loss of high-paying jobs and tax revenues.  There is a high probability that bank deposits would shift from Scotland to England within days.  Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest bank, issued this ominous warning:  :  "Be afraid, be very afraid".

But this referendum is a battle of emotions so anything can happen.  In the 1995 Quebec vote for separation from Canada, polls pointed to "yes",  but voters did not take the plunge - they voted no (It was close:  50.6% - 49.4%).  Scotland can easily go either way.  For many, the price of freedom from the government in London will be a price worth paying.  (Remember Mel Gibson in "Braveheart"  - FREEDOM! )  Even Sean Connery will vote "yes"  - and when did James Bond ever lose a mission?