Ukraine Makes Deals For Peace And Trade

The real dilemma for Ukrainian sovereignty is the simple fact that the population is not homogeneous.  Ninety per cent of the people see themselves as Ukrainian nationals and most of them want closer ties with the West.  But the other ten per cent, in Crimea and the East, are loyal to Russia.  The Crimea problem was solved in March when Russia simply annexed it to the homeland.  In the East, however, the ongoing conflict between separatist rebels (assisted by Russian troops)  and the Ukrainian army presents a more difficult problem.

So on September 5, 2014, President Poroshenko and the rebels signed a cease-fire agreement to end the bloodshed and to establish more autonomy in the East.  This plan was backed by Vladimir Putin.  Essentially, it's a blueprint for limited self-government in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions - very similar to state powers in America and provincial powers in Canada.  The law will go into effect for 3 years, at which time both the Ukrainian government and separatists will "re-evaluate"  their positions.  Will the East return to full membership in Ukraine?  Probably not.  Most likely it will either become independent or join Russia.

Another deal was ratified by the Ukrainian Parliament this week with the European Union.  It opens Ukraine up for more trade and more investment by Western entrepreneurs and companies, and possibly full membership in the EU at some later date.  But the terms of this deal are vague and limited, probably done deliberately so as not to upset Vladimir Putin (most of Ukraine's oil comes from Russia).  Still, it is a step forward.  And with the cease-fire agreement now in place, at least Ukraine has some breathing space to plan its future.