Ukraine's Dilemma: Unity? Or Let The East Go

Last Sunday (Oct. 26th)  Ukrainians voted in a Parliamentary election.  It was a landslide in favour of closer political and economic ties to Europe and the West.  No single political party was able to form a majority government but Prime Minister Poroshenko said:  "More than three-fourths of voters have powerfully and irreversibly supported a European course for Ukraine.........  So I expect the quick formation of a new coalition  government".

But Poroshenko faces a dilemma - separatists in eastern Ukraine boycotted the election.  In fact, they plan to hold their own election, fully supported by Russia, this coming Sunday (Nov. 2nd).  Porochenko and his top Ukrainian officials call this election "rogue"  and "illegal";  Ukraine must remain one united country.  Fine patriotic words but reality tells a different story.  The people in the east appear to support closer ties with Russia and seem quite comfortable with either annexation or independence.  Poroshenko's promise to give more autonomy to the eastern region holds no appeal;  it's too little too late.

Even Ukraine's actions point towards the acceptance of an inevitable split.  The little town of Selydove, 15 miles west of the separatist capital Donetsk, looks like a fortified border checkpoint.  Trenches, concrete blocks and portable buildings dot the landscape.  Road barriers have been set up and border guards check the passports of all vehicles passing westward from the separatist region.  One guard pointed eastward and said "both sides are Ukraine, but on that side, they don't want so much to be part of Ukraine".  The official government position is that this checkpoint and others like it do not form a border.  Spokesman Oleh Slobodyan declared:  "this is a provisional security line, not a border.  Its purpose is to establish a temporary neutral zone".

Sooner or later, Ukraine will have to accept some compromise to ensure a long lasting peace and sense of stability.  If it doesn't, it will never qualify for membership in the European Union.  In my view, the so-called provisional security line will become a permanent border between an independent Ukraine and the Donetsk People's Republic.

P.S.  Today, an agreement was reached by Russia and Ukraine to deliver Russian gas and oil over the coming winter.  I wonder if this guarantee contains a secret deal - did the Ukrainian government promise to give up all claim to the separatist region in return for this essential gas and oil?