Thursday 30 October 2014

Vladimir Putin's New "Cold War" In The Arctic


Sitting on top of the world, the Arctic has become an enormous strategic and economic prize for all 5 countries that circle this vast ocean.  Modern technology and the melting ice cap makes the dream of a northern sea route more of a reality.  One third of the world's natural gas deposits and 15% of its oil lie under the sea-bed.  And no one recognizes this potential more than Vladimir Putin.

Last year, a base in the Novosibirsk islands, shut down at the end of the Cold War was reopened.  Now it harbours 10 military ships and 4 icebreakers.  Just last week, the Russian military announced it had opened a new base on Wrangel Island near Alaska and that 6 more bases and 7 airfields were "on the drawing board".

Putin's chief architect to head this ambitious plan is Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin:  "It is crucially important for us to set goals for our national interests in the Arctic region.  If we don't do that, we will lose the battle for resources, which means we will also lose in a big battle for the right to have sovereignty and independence".  What?  I hope the meaning of this sentence was lost in translation because to me it sounds like "if we don't militarize and exploit the resources now, our future land claims in the Arctic will be threatened".  By whom?  Your Arctic neighbours Denmark, Canada, Norway and America?

Whatever it means, clearly this kind of "hawkish"  talk signifies the strategic importance of the Arctic for President Putin and his new Russian Order.  It may also explain the recent Russian military exercises in its Far East.  This war game involved 155,000 men and thousands of tanks, jets and ships.  Many of these forces were sent to Wrangel Island and the nearby Chukotka beaches to "repel"  an invasion.  The name of the enemy was "Missouria" - an unmistakeable reference to America.

Despite the huge cost of this military build-up, Arctic dominance is a top priority for President Putin.  Next year's national defense budget, for example, is up a whopping 25% over 2014's budget.  This despite a slowdown in the Russian economy caused by the drop in oil prices (half of the government's revenue),  economic sanctions imposed by the West over the invasion of Ukraine and the currency (ruble)  hitting new lows against the American dollar and the Euro.

Russia's Arctic neighbours are well aware of Russia's intentions.  They are taking steps to protect their own territorial claims and ambitions.  Will the Arctic become the new world hot spot?  Stay tuned for Part 2.



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